Source for domestic pricing: USDA Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS), Source for imported pricing: Cotlook LTD, A Index.
The first interesting thing to note about the price of cotton is that it is trending down, both globally and domestically. Why? Basic economics. Supply and demand. The demand for new textiles has been sluggish worldwide because of slow economic growth and people just not spending as much. That means a surplus of raw materials…hence, prices are lowered.
The next thing to notice is the cost difference between imported and domestic raw cotton. A lot of this is easily explained by the “price” being monitored including freight and shipping. So domestic cotton will always appear cheaper.
But another factor weighing into the mix is that Brazil has overtaken the US as the leading global exporter of cotton. Here’s an excerpt from from southernagtoday.org:
In 2016, U.S. cotton exports captured 39% of the global market, but this share has steadily declined since the onset of trade disputes with China. By 2023, the U.S. share in the global cotton market had fallen to 26%, its lowest point in over a decade. Although it rebounded slightly to 28% in 2024 and 2025, U.S. cotton has faced rising competitive pressures, particularly from Brazil. Brazil’s ability to double-crop cotton with other crops has driven substantial growth in its cotton production and exports. Consequently, Brazil has rapidly expanded its role in the global cotton market, surpassing U.S. cotton export volumes by 2023 and becoming the world’s leading cotton exporter. This shift is closely tied to China’s strategic diversification away from U.S. cotton, with Chinese investment in Brazilian infrastructure improving logistics, port access, and overall competitiveness.
southernagtoday.org
Once again, it means the US is faced with those stubborn economic principles. Lower demand on the global stage means lower prices.
Now, you may ask, what does all this have to do with me? If the prices of the raw materials are going down, shouldn’t the price of my quilt cotton be going down?
The problem is that very little US cotton stays here to be processed and used as fabric. It is exported to mills in Viet Nam and South Korea (which by the way is where 80-90% of quilt shop fabric is manufactured).
When the fabric is finished, it gets re-imported back into the US and tariffs are imposed. It doesn’t matter that the raw material started in the US.
So, I just want to be clear. We grow the cotton here in the US, we are making less and less on the exported farming sales. When it is imported again, we pay the tariffs and those increasing costs are passed down to the consumer.
To reiterate, the US makes less money selling the cotton, and pays more to use the final product. That is the way the system has been designed. This year.
These are the facts.
I don’t know what that means for each individual consumer. You may need to assess your priorities. Me, I will be using my stash as much as possible and supporting my local shops as much as I can. I also plan to monitor the price of quilt cotton around the country over the next year.
When I became a quilter, we were buying fabric all the time–shop-hopping our way to every place we could find. That’s not how the next generations approach this craft. They are re-purposing, mending, re-using, and scrapping. Things are changing. Supply and demand.
It’s important to understand the dynamics at play here. That doesn’t mean any pricing will self-correct over time. In fact it is likely to get far worse before it gets better.