Who Cares About the Price of Cotton?

Source for domestic pricing: USDA Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS), Source for imported pricing: Cotlook LTD, A Index.

The first interesting thing to note about the price of cotton is that it is trending down, both globally and domestically. Why? Basic economics. Supply and demand. The demand for new textiles has been sluggish worldwide because of slow economic growth and people just not spending as much. That means a surplus of raw materials…hence, prices are lowered.

The next thing to notice is the cost difference between imported and domestic raw cotton. A lot of this is easily explained by the “price” being monitored including freight and shipping. So domestic cotton will always appear cheaper.

But another factor weighing into the mix is that Brazil has overtaken the US as the leading global exporter of cotton. Here’s an excerpt from from southernagtoday.org:

In 2016, U.S. cotton exports captured 39% of the global market, but this share has steadily declined since the onset of trade disputes with China. By 2023, the U.S. share in the global cotton market had fallen to 26%, its lowest point in over a decade. Although it rebounded slightly to 28% in 2024 and 2025, U.S. cotton has faced rising competitive pressures, particularly from Brazil.  Brazil’s ability to double-crop cotton with other crops has driven substantial growth in its cotton production and exports. Consequently, Brazil has rapidly expanded its role in the global cotton market, surpassing U.S. cotton export volumes by 2023 and becoming the world’s leading cotton exporter. This shift is closely tied to China’s strategic diversification away from U.S. cotton, with Chinese investment in Brazilian infrastructure improving logistics, port access, and overall competitiveness.

southernagtoday.org

Once again, it means the US is faced with those stubborn economic principles. Lower demand on the global stage means lower prices.

Now, you may ask, what does all this have to do with me? If the prices of the raw materials are going down, shouldn’t the price of my quilt cotton be going down?

The problem is that very little US cotton stays here to be processed and used as fabric. It is exported to mills in Viet Nam and South Korea (which by the way is where 80-90% of quilt shop fabric is manufactured).

When the fabric is finished, it gets re-imported back into the US and tariffs are imposed. It doesn’t matter that the raw material started in the US.

So, I just want to be clear. We grow the cotton here in the US, we are making less and less on the exported farming sales. When it is imported again, we pay the tariffs and those increasing costs are passed down to the consumer.

To reiterate, the US makes less money selling the cotton, and pays more to use the final product. That is the way the system has been designed. This year.

These are the facts.

I don’t know what that means for each individual consumer. You may need to assess your priorities. Me, I will be using my stash as much as possible and supporting my local shops as much as I can. I also plan to monitor the price of quilt cotton around the country over the next year.

When I became a quilter, we were buying fabric all the time–shop-hopping our way to every place we could find. That’s not how the next generations approach this craft. They are re-purposing, mending, re-using, and scrapping. Things are changing. Supply and demand.

It’s important to understand the dynamics at play here. That doesn’t mean any pricing will self-correct over time. In fact it is likely to get far worse before it gets better.

YOU Get a Tariff, and YOU Get a Tariff, and YOU Get a Tariff…

Author’s Note 4-9-25: So a week after the tariffs were announced, and the US stock market lost over $6 trillion, they were put on hold for 90 days in 75 countries. China, however, is now being tariffed at (checks minute by minute notes…) 125%. Our global trade policy now has the entire global economy jumping around like your drunk uncle doing the chicken dance at a family wedding. YOU do the math. I’m out.

Let’s chat for a hot minute about sewing machine manufacturing.

First, let’s all get on the same page.

No domestic sewing machines are manufactured in the United States. None, Not one.

You can read about where they come from here.

I had planned on writing soon about the cost of sewing machines. Bernina’s top of the line has a manufacturer’s suggested price of $22,999. That seems obscene to me. But when you look at other top of the line machines, they are all in the same range.

Now, a decent dealer will probably offer it at somewhere around $20,000 as a special deal or with financing.

Now let’s get to the tariffs. Switzerland (where the top of the line Bernina machines are made) now has a tariff of 31%. So for grins, let’s add the tariff price onto the manufacturer’s price.

22,999 x .31 = 7129.69

22,999 + 7129 = 30,128

So the new manufacturer’s price will likely be near $30,000. I assure you, your local dealership cannot eat the cost of that increase. Neither can Bernina. You will pay it.

Is a sewing machine worth that much to you? That might not be a fair question, because at the end of the day we don’t know how these tariffs will play out. Maybe some will be renegotiated. And, Bernina dealers have some units in stock. So if you want one BUY IT RIGHT NOW before new stock has to be brought in.

Now, the rest of Bernina machines are manufactured in a Bernina-owned plant in Thailand. That’s a 36% tariff. So let’s imagine a low- to mid-line machine that’s roughly about $2500.

2500 x .36 = 900

2500 + 900 = 3400

Author’s Note: Since publishing this page, I discovered that Switzerland already has tariffs that are 2-5%, and Thailand has 5-10% (before the new tariffs were announced). So we cannot accurately anticipate the exact price increase…likely a few percentage points lower than what’s shown above. But another note, the day after the tariffs were announced, they were revised, and now Thailand is up to 37% tariffs. So the situation is fluid…notably, no prices are going down and are likely going up very much.

Now you can do this math on all the machines, for all manufacturers. Because sewing machines are manufactured in many places: Japan, Taiwan, Viet Nam, China. Price increases will vary, and the whole chain of distribution will be working through the supply that they already have. But I would guess that within the next few months, you can count on major increases.

Side note about the tariffs in general: They are apparently calculated by dividing a country’s trade surplus with the U.S. by its total exports, using 2024 data. Many, if not all countries, sell more to the US than we do to them….for obvious reasons. We’re big, we’re wealthier, we consume more, we like low prices.
But when it comes to services, we sell much more to other countries than they do to us.

The whole idea behind these tariffs is to spur manufacturing in the US.

But lets take a look at Bernina. It took them years to locate and build a facility in Thailand. Not to mention the expense of that investment. And that was while building materials such as steel were readily available in that country. The chances that they are suddenly going to determine that the US is a great place to manufacture are very slim. In all likelihood, because they are an international company, they will restructure their business to focus more on selling to other countries and to ride out the storm in the US for as long as they can.

If you are interested, here is the list of reciprocal tariffs in all countries.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/02/trump-reciprocal-tariffs-countries-chart-imports-united-states.html

I don’t know how this will all play out. No one does. But none of it so far looks good. It’s difficult to see how this becomes successful. Unless, of course, countries begin to offer other concessions in exchange for lower tariffs. I have no idea how that would be received, except to garner hatred from around the world rather than partnerships.

By the way, not much quilt fabric is manufactured in the US either. But I know that one is called American Made Brand. Here’s a link to some of their fabric at Missouri Star.

Hang onto your fatquarters, sewists, the ride is about to get bumpy.